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 Baccarat Card Counting
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Baccarat Card Counting
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Description:
The principle of card counting in Baccarat is based on calculating the impact of the remaining cards in each shoe on the chances of the Banker or Player. By doing so, it determines the probability of the Banker or Player winning the next round and increases the chances of placing successful bets.
Important Information Before Use:
The software must be connected to the internet, so please ensure a stable internet connection.
Card counting calculations should start from the first round of each shoe.
The software provides formulas for calculating with 8 decks and 6 decks. The default setting is to use 8 decks, but you can change it in the settings page to use 6 decks.
Card counting becomes more reliable with more cards counted. It is recommended to count at least 120 cards (approximately 25 rounds) before deciding when to place bets.
Card counting is a probabilistic mathematical technique, and to obtain meaningful results, it is advisable to analyze at least 100 rounds.
Probability and Expectation Value in Baccarat:
You can view the changes in probabilities for each card drawn during the calculation process on the “Statistical” page of the software.
The following chart displays the original data of Baccarat probabilities and expectation values obtained through calculations. From the chart, we can observe the probabilities and expectation values for “Banker”, “Player”, and “Tie”.
The goal of card counting is to calculate these probabilities and expectation values.
Probabilities:
The original probabilities are “45.8597%” for “Banker”, “44.6247%” for “Player”, and “9.5156%” for “Tie”.
The probabilities change with each card drawn. The numerical values shown in blue circles on the chart represent the changes in probabilities, with positive values indicating an increase and negative values indicating a decrease in probability.
Calculation of Expectation Value:
Expectation value for red “Banker”: 0.95 × 45.8597 - 44.6247 = “-1.0579%”
Expectation value for purple “Player”: 44.6247 - 45.8597 = 「-1.2351%」
Expectation value for green “Tie” with 1:8 payout: 8 × 9.5156 - 44.6247 - 45.8597 = “-14.3596%”
Expectation value for green “Tie” with 1:9 payout: 9 × 9.5156 - 44.6247 - 45.8597 = “-4.8440%”
This “expectation value” represents the “house edge” or “casino advantage”.
For gamblers, the expectation value for “Banker” is a negative value of “-1.0579%”. However, for the casino, this expectation value becomes the “casino advantage” for the “Banker” with a positive value of “1.0579%”.
For example, if the casino has a “Banker’s casino advantage” of 1.0579%, it means that over a long period of play, the casino can earn 1.0579 units of currency from every 100 units wagered by all gamblers.
Therefore, regardless of who wins or loses and regardless of the individual gamblers, over an extended period of play, the casino’s profit is obtained by multiplying the “total amount” wagered by all gamblers by 1.0579%.
You can see that initially, the expectation values for “Banker”, “Player”, and “Tie” are all negative: “Banker” (-1.0579%), “Player” (-1.2351%). The expectation value for “Tie” is extremely low, so there is no room for card counting, and it is strongly advised not to bet on “Tie”.
However, these expectation values change with each card drawn. It's important to note that the lower the negative value of the expectation value, the more favorable it is for the gambler.
For example, the original expectation value for "Banker" is -1.0579%. After counting 150 cards, the expectation value for "Banker" becomes -0.6000%. At this point, the "Banker's casino advantage" is reduced to only 0.6000%. So, the lower the negative value of the expectation value, the more favorable it is for the gambler.
If the expectation value turns positive, it means that the “casino advantage” becomes negative, indicating that the casino is at a disadvantage. However, the probability of the expectation value turning positive is extremely low.
If you have a cashback program in Baccarat, you don't have to wait until the expectation value becomes positive for the casino to be at a disadvantage. Therefore, the higher the cashback, the more valuable card counting becomes.
AI Mode:
Using artificial intelligence calculations, it provides an indicator of the advantage for “Banker” or “Player” displayed on a scale of 0 to 10, where 0 indicates the weakest advantage and 10 indicates the strongest advantage. Based on your cashback ratio in the Baccarat game, you can refer to the strength indicator and choose when to place bets.
Advanced Mode:
Since card counting in Baccarat is less efficient compared to Blackjack, with fewer opportunities for betting, this software incorporates six additional calculation formulas to increase betting opportunities. Each formula is divided into three levels of strength indicator. You can use the formula results as a reference for your bets.
● Recommended Operating System: Android 5.0 or above.
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